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NEXT-GENERATION EARTHQUAKE INTENSITY AND MAGNITUDE PREDICTION EQUATIONS FOR HIMALAYAN REGION

Anbazhagan P. & Harish Thakur

Paper No.: 597

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Vol.: 62

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No.: 2

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June, 2025

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pp. 113-127

Abstract

 

Intensity Prediction Equations (IPEs) are essential to produce seismic risk mapping, and a very limited number of such models are available for the Himalayan Region. This study presents macroseismic intensity-based relations – (i) magnitude (Mw) vs. maximum Intensity (Imax) equations for past earthquakes, (ii) IPEs for risk estimation and (iii) Imax vs Mw for future earthquakes. For the development of IPEs, two distinct intensity datasets were catalogued using macroseismic information from past studies: (a) considering published information from field studies and print media, and (b) using online questionnaires (like DYFI, an initiative by the USGS). In addition, the present study reevaluated the intensities of conventional datasets for a few earthquake events in various assignment scales homogenized to a common scale. A one-stage and two-stage regression technique is used to derive IPEs for both datasets. These IPEs are designed for a second-order relationship of seismic intensity w.r.t. event’s Magnitude. Choosing the most appropriate IPEs using a maximum intensity versus magnitude approximation of the IPE’s approach has also been suggested, which depends on an optimal hypocentral depth. The damage potential of upcoming earthquakes can be evaluated using these recently created equations.
Keywords: Intensity Prediction Equations; Macroseismic Intensity, Magnitude-Intensity Relationships; Seismic Risk Assessment; EMS-98

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