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CHALLENGES IN SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT: INDIAN PERSPECTIVE

M.L. Sharma

Paper No.: 584

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Vol.: 61

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No.: 1

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March, 2024

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pp. 1-26

Abstract

 

Seismic Hazard Assessment (SHA) is a scientific technique used to predict potential ground shaking from earthquakes. It requires state-of-the-art specifications for three key elements: seismic source modeling, ground motion modeling, and uncertainty modeling. SHA is a multidisciplinary science that integrates various fields of study, including geology, tectonics, seismology, geodesy, statistics, and engineering seismology. However, many studies still rely on simplistic seismic source descriptions and basic statistical analyses of historical and incomplete earthquake catalogs, which are subject to various types and degrees of uncertainty. Seismic hazard models generally consist of a probabilistic framework that quantifies uncertainty across a complex system. Most probabilistic seismic hazard analyses use forecasting periods of 30 to 50 years, corresponding to engineering requirements for building codes. To meet the need for more accurate and spatially precise hazard forecasting, science-driven models must integrate all available information, adopt appropriate mathematical frameworks to quantify different types of uncertainty, and establish a robust testing phase to assess the model’s consistency and predictive skill. In the Indian context, two main goals should be prioritized: comprehending, quantifying, and reducing uncertainties throughout all phases of the modeling process, and enhancing the targeting of end-user requirements in the development and output of the models
Keywords: National Seismic Hazard Modelling, Ground Motion, PSHA, Uncertainty, India

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